Mayday! Mayday! Rising popularity of Green Party signals trouble for NDP

[From: Edmonton Sun]By NIK NANOSwildcard.gifThe Green Party of Canada is poised to be the political wildcard in the next federal election. A look at the numbers reveals potential for the Greens. The environment as an issue remains hot, hot, hot. To top things off, national support for the Greens is consistently trending above their traditional level.We should remember that in the 2000 federal election the Green Party of Canada, according to Elections Canada, garnered the support of less than 1% (0.8% to be exact) of the national vote.In the 2004 general election, the Green Party hit 4.3% support nationally with a further increase to 4.5% in the 2006 election.This might sound small compared to the Conservatives and the Liberals, but this is a growing indication that the Green Party is evolving from a loose movement to more of a formalized political player in Canada.According to the latest SES Research poll, conducted with Sun Media, Green Party support nationally stands at about 8%. Of note, in Canada’s two most populous provinces, they are within striking distance of the New Democrats. In both Ontario and Quebec they trail the NDP, but within the margin of accuracy. It’s no surprise the NDP leader Jack Layton takes the Green threat so seriously.The increasing importance of the environment as an issue has been another political windfall for the Greens. While the environment has always been a Green bailiwick, it seems as if Canadians and also Canada’s traditional political parties, are now playing catch-up.The Liberals selected a new leader with strong environmental credentials and even the Tories, a party not perceived as being strong on the environmental front, are trying their best to seem greener.The election of Elizabeth May, a person with strong environmental credentials as the former executive director of the Sierra Club of Canada, was likely the right move for the party at this point in time and gives the Greens the political high ground on the environment.Although a major breakthrough for the Greens would be to win even one seat in the House of Commons, the main threat they pose to the traditional parties is as a spoiler.An attack by Green Party leader Elizabeth May on the environmental stance of a federal party leader will be something to avoid since it sends a signal of who not to vote for. This is where May can do her greatest damage to the other party leaders.It would seem that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was quick to understand this. His political entente with May will likely pay dividends for the Grits come election time. May’s tacit endorsement of the Dion Liberals makes the Grits a safe haven for strategic voters who are concerned about the environment.Although the environment may not yet have the hot button appeal of issues such as taxes, health and crime, it is an issue that leaders want to avoid getting a failing grade on.It’s in the arena of the leaders’ debate that the greatest political damage can be inflicted. The big battle for the Greens will be the fight to be part of the leaders’ debate.Stephane Dion would surely benefit from having May in the debate, which is probably the main reason why both Harper and Layton will fight to keep her out and minimize the Green Party wild card effect.

 

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